If you’ve been wondering what really matters heading into 2026, you’re not alone. Buyers and sellers across Johnston County are paying closer attention to the market than ever — and for good reason.
The housing market is shifting into a more balanced, data-driven environment. Gone are the days of guessing.
In 2026, smart decisions will be made by those who understand where the market is going, not where it’s been.
Here are the six big things buyers and sellers should keep an eye on in 2026 — and what they mean locally for Johnston County.
1️⃣ Prices & Home Values: Growth, Not Gimmicks
Home values are expected to continue rising — but at a healthier, more sustainable pace.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, home prices nationwide are projected to increase roughly 4% in 2026, signaling stability rather than volatility.
That’s good news for both buyers and sellers.
In Johnston County, pricing will continue to be influenced by:
- New construction pricing and builder concessions
- Neighborhood-specific inventory
- Significant buyer affordability relative to Wake County
The takeaway: Pricing accuracy matters more than ever. Overpricing will cost sellers time, money and leverage, while well-priced, move-in ready homes will continue to sell.
2️⃣ Where Will Interest Rates Go?
Buyers aren’t just watching rates, they’re watching payments.
NAR forecasts mortgage rates settling closer to the low-6% range in 2026, creating more predictability after years of volatility. Even small rate improvements can significantly expand buying power.
For sellers, this means:
- More qualified buyers entering the market
- Less “rate paralysis” among move-up buyers
The takeaway: Creative financing strategies — including seller concessions and builder-paid closing costs and/or rate buy-downs — will remain a powerful negotiating tool.
3️⃣ What Happens to Inventory?
National forecasts point to a modest increase in housing supply, though inventory will remain below pre-pandemic norms.
Locally, Johnston County continues to benefit from new construction, while resale inventory remains tighter in certain price points.
Added new construction inventory coming to Johnston and Harnett Counties in 2026 include Sommerset Pond in Wendell, Riverwood Ranch in Clayton, Longleaf Village in Pine Level, and Sayer Ridge in Dunn.
The takeaway: There may be more homes for sale — but not necessarily in every neighborhood or price range. Hyper-local expertise matters.
4️⃣ Builder Incentives Will Stay in the Spotlight
Local and national home builders aren’t done negotiating.
Recent data from the National Association of Home Builders shows nearly two-thirds of builders are offering incentives, including:
- Mortgage rate buydowns
- Closing cost assistance
- Upgrade or design credits
- Less upfront builder deposits for due diligence
- Creativity helping buyers break leases
- Thinking outside the box helping buyers with upfront HOA fees
Rather than slashing prices across the board, builders are becoming more strategic.
The takeaway: Buyers who understand the incentive landscape — and work with new construction agents who track it daily — can save real money.
5️⃣ Will Inbound Migration into the Triangle Remain Strong?
Short answer: Yes.
The greater Raleigh area was recently named one of the Top 10 Hottest Housing Markets for 2026 by NAR, based on affordability, job growth, and demand potential.
Johnston County continues to benefit from:
- Buyers relocating from higher-priced Triangle markets
- “Baby chasers” moving closer to family
- Retirees seeking affordability without sacrificing lifestyle
- 1825 people a year are moving to the Town of Clayton (Source: TOC Economic Development Office)
- First time buyers are choosing JoCo over Raleigh due to the lack of affordable homes
- The job market remains robust attracting new employees to local companies like Caterpillar, Novo Nordisk, and Grifols. While some new employees look to rent, many are also buying a new home
The takeaway: Demand isn’t disappearing — it’s shifting. Johnston County remains a value-driven destination.
6️⃣ The Role of AI in the Real Estate Transaction: From Search to Closing
AI is already reshaping real estate but not replacing agents.
From smarter home searches to pricing analysis and document review, AI is streamlining the transaction for both buyers and sellers.
What it can’t replace is:
- Local market knowledge
- Contract and home inspection negotiation skills
- Human guidance during major life decisions
The takeaway: The future belongs to agents who combine technology with trusted, boots-on-the-ground expertise to build trust and bring clarity.
Johnston County – A Market Poised for More Activity in 2026
One of the most compelling signals heading into 2026 comes from NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, who recently forecasted a 14% increase in existing-home sales nationwide in 2026.
In addition, Yun made the following forecasts for 2026:
- New home sales are projected to rise 5%
- Prices are expected to climb by 4%
- Mortgage interest rates should average in the low 6%, down from above 7% in 2025
That projected growth is driven by:
- Moderating mortgage rates
- Improving inventory
- Better affordability compared to recent years
- Income growth is outpacing inflation giving buyers more money in their pockets to buy
- Anticipated aggressive actions by the government seeking sweeping changes to help affordability is hopeful
In short: more buyers and sellers are expected to re-enter the market.
BONUS – Why Trust Still Matters
Data is powerful — but trust matters more.
⭐ 5-Star Google Review from a First-Time Buyer
I closed on my first house yesterday with RiverWILD, and I highly recommend working with them! Lacey was an amazing agent and did an awesome job guiding me through every step of the process!
Levi Mercedes
Helping buyers and sellers navigate uncertainty — with clarity and confidence — is exactly what we do.
Thinking About Buying or Selling in 2026?
Understanding these six factors can make the difference between guessing and making a smart, informed move. If you’re planning ahead, now is the perfect time to start the conversation.
The team at RiverWILD Real Estate would love the opportunity to earn your trust in 2026!